The early mornings at Churchill Downs have been very busy as preparations for the Breeders' Cup World Championships are well underway. Most of the contenders are already on the grounds putting in their final preparations with a few preferring to stay home in New York and California until the last possible minute. Not all horses take to certain racing surfaces, so the preference of many trainers is to allow their horse as much time as they need to get familiar with all their surroundings. On the other hand, some trainers think they can accomplish more without all the distractions that come along with this week and ship to Churchill later. Horse racing is not an exact science; so to say one way is better than the other is unsubstantiated. Whichever horse has the flower bed draped over him or her after they win the race was the one prepared the "right way," for this year anyway.
Trainers are just like coaches in that they respond to media questions with the most obvious and cliché answers. As sports handicappers, our job lies in reading between the lines in order to gain an edge in the point spread. Handicapping horses is no different, especially when analyzing 8 different races at different distances and surfaces involving not only American horses, but also those from England, France, and Ireland. The Breeders' Cup attracts a huge following, and the amount of money wagered by these unsophisticated players on-track and others around the world makes these races exceptional overlays. Those of us who follow the sport year round have a decided edge over the general public, and when the media over-hypes certain contenders our edge increases even more.
Board Games
I follow horse racing all year long. I don't come out of the woodwork like others when the big races roll around. I come from a horse racing family with many years of experience on the backside. If you read my write-up recommending Bernardini to win the Preakness below, you can see just how much research I put into this. I play nothing but long shots, and to profit at the horses playing that way you only need to be right 30% of the time, not the 52.4% needed to win betting sports at -110. I had success in last year's Cup with winners of .50 and .60, and I hope this year brings along those good fortunes once again. The Form is calling.
# 8 Bernardini (8-1): Lightly raced colt is trained by conservative, yet effective Thomas Albertrani. After serving as head assistant to Bill Mott for 9 years, Albertrani was hired by Godolphin Racing in 1995 and moved to Dubai as an assistant to trainer Saeed bin Suroor. While there, Albertrani learned a new training philosophy which counters the American way. It says to take royally bred horses, teach them at 2, and then began racing them at 3. The idea being that the horses will be more productive from the get-go while keeping them fresher in order to get max potential in every race they run. Since returning in 2003, Albertrani adopted this strategy and he currently employs these tactics as a private trainer for today's owner, Darley Stable.
The above is the exact course taken by Bernardini who has just 3 races under his belt heading into today. His sire is A.P. Indy and his grand sire is the great Seattle Slew, making Bernardini the best bred horse in the field by a landslide. That includes heavy favorite Barbaro, who's breeding is impeccable for turf racing, not dirt. In his debut on January 7th, Bernardini faced a field of 11 in a 6 furlong sprint, losing by 5 1/4 lengths. He broke out 9th after a slow start, and was just 3 1/4 lengths behind at the top of the stretch before tiring and finishing 4th. The winner of that race, Exclusive Quality, has won twice since, including the Spectacular Bid Stakes. His second race came two months later on March 4th. This time, Albertrani stretched him out to a flat mile and Bernardini won going away by 7 3/4 lengths. Again he had gate trouble, this time hitting it on the way out. He went off as the favorite and beat a solid field that day, including the .8 million dollar purchase High Finance. Most impressive was the fact that Bernardini pulled away by more than 3 lengths in the stretch in his first route race after coming off a 2 month layoff. His last race came in the Grade 3 Withers at Aqueduct in which he won by 3 3/4 lengths despite the jock losing his whip in the stretch. It was just a four horse race, but he ran a flat mile in a fast 1:35 and that is the fastest time run by anyone in this field at that distance. He earned a 104 Beyer which is the best last race number besides Barbaro's 111 earned in the Derby.
Bernardini will be stalking the three speed horses Like Now, Brother Derek, and Diabolical from the second flight. Also in that pack will be Barbaro, but Bernardini has the advantage of being on the outside which will allow him to get first jump on the speed on the far turn. At the top of the stretch, Bernardini will be in an ideal position to spring the upset. Unlike many in here, Bernardini is bred to run all day long and the added distance should be welcomed as his 409 Tomlinson number suggests. As mentioned above, trainer Albertrani is conservative, yet effective. He's saddled just 71 horses this year, winning 16 races for 23%. In graded stakes, he's sent 16 to post and won 5 of those races for 31% with an ROI of .19. These numbers prove that his horses are live every time they run, and he's not running them just to run. Bernardini is our selection to dethrone Barbaro in The 131st Preakness Stakes. Play Bernardini across the board; Win, Place, and Show.
The above should prove that I know a little something about horses. Bernardini won easy at odds of 12-1. Forget about playing him in this year's Classic. Yes, he looks to be unbeatable on paper but at odds of somewhere in the 3-5 range, you can have him. Do not leave him off your Pick 3's and 4's but as far as that race goes, he'll be underneath others only. My clients and I made our score with him and now it's time to find the next Bernardini. The Form is still calling...
Replay. Some like it. Some don't. As sports bettors, we fall into both categories depending upon if the reversal or lack thereof helps our chances to win a bet. Looking at this from a fan's perspective, I have some problems with the college replay system. The Texas / Texas Tech game was almost unbearable to watch despite it being a heck of a game that also had some financial interest riding on Tech. It seemed like every other play was being reviewed which slowed the game down way too much. There were 5 guys in the replay booth at Tech, and they still blew numerous calls. Five guys in the booth, but only one at the GT / Miami Fla game and he must have been on a piss break when there was no review on an INT (see write-up). The college system needs to adapt the NFL's system which only reviews plays that have a coach's challenge unless there's less than two minutes. Go out and hire competent officials or revise the replay system. It's that simple.
Horsing Around with Replay
Steve Merril is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at [http://www.procappers.com/Steve_Merril.htm].
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